Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
These results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, nearly two-thirds of the updates for today’s results are based upon interviews conducted before the president’s speech to the nation. The impact of the president’s speech will be seen over the next several days.
Sixty-nine percent (69%) agree with President Obama that BP should pay for more than just the direct cost of the clean-up. Sixty-seven percent (67%) believe better government inspections of oil rigs might have prevented the spill. Heading into the speech, 30% of voters gave President Obama good or excellent marks for handling the oil spill. These figures will be updated later today.
Seventy-two percent (72%) of GOP voters continue to believe that Republicans in Congress are out of touch with the party’s base. By contrast, 61% of Democratic voters think their representatives in Congress have done a good job of representing Democratic values over the past several years
The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook.
Overall, 43% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president’s performance. Fifty-six percent (56%) now disapprove. The president’s approval rating has held steady in the 46% – 47% range for six months and it remains to be seen whether this new low is merely statistical noise or the start of a lasting change.
The Rasmussen Reports Media Meter shows that media coverage of President Obama has been 39% positive over the past week. Since the passage of the health care law, coverage has ranged from a high of 60% positive to a low of 39% positive.
On another topic, most Americans (53%) continue to believe the bailout of General Motors and Chrysler was a bad idea.
Rasmussen Reports has released polls on the 2010 governor’s races in Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
See the latest Rasmussen Reports 2010 Senate polling from Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin.
Scott Rasmussen’s new book, In Search of Self-Governance , is available at Rasmussen Reports and Amazon.com. If you’d like Scott to speak at your conference or event, contact Premiere Speakers Bureau.
Scott has published several recent Wall Street Journal columns including “Why Obama Can’t Move the Health Care Numbers” and how Obama won the White House by campaigning like Ronald Reagan. He has also written an overview of the health care reform debate, a look at how President Obama is losing independent voters, and was the first to note the decline in the president’s approval ratings.
You can also learn about Scott’s favorite place on earth and his time working with hockey legend Gordie Howe.
It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. President Obama’s numbers are always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That’s because some of the president’s most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. It is also important to check the details of question wording when comparing approval ratings from different firms.
Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our “unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy.”
The Pew Center noted that Rasmussen Reports beat traditional media in covering Scott Brown’s upset win in Massachusetts earlier this year: “ “It was polling—not journalistic reporting—that caught the wave in the race to succeed Massachusetts Senator Edward M. Kennedy.” Rasmussen Reports was also the first to show Joe Sestak catching Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary race this year.
In the 2009 New Jersey Governor’s race, automated polls tended to be more accurate than operator-assisted polling techniques. On reviewing the state polling results from 2009, Mickey Kaus offered this assessment, “If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen!”
In 2008, Obama won 53%-46% and our final poll showed Obama winning 52% to 46%. While we were pleased with the final result, Rasmussen Reports was especially pleased with the stability of our results. On every single day for the last six weeks of the campaign, our daily tracking showed Obama with a stable and solid lead attracting more than 50% of the vote.
We also have provided a summary of our 2008 state-by-state presidential results for your review.
In 2004 George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports polling projected that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. We were the only firm to project both candidates’ totals within half a percentage point by (see our 2004 results).
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters–is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Since the November 2008 election, the number of Democrats in the country has declined while the number of unaffiliated voters has grown.
Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 35.8% Democrats, 32.2% Republicans, and 32.1% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly smaller advantage for the Democrats
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
Other stats on Obama are updated daily on the Rasmussen Reports By The Numbers page.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.